Posted by
Scott on Wednesday, October 31, 2007 1:11:40 AM
It occurred to me today while I was looking over a number of online articles just how significant the upcoming Iowa caucus elections is . For those of you not following the iowa primaries, basically it boils down to this Romney will most likely win but Huckabee could spring an upset or be considered the 'true winner' if he places a strong second ahead of Thompson.
What seems to be at stake is the direction of the party. There's no question that if a candidates social conservatism is their most important critieria that the former Baptist minister Huckabee should get your vote. Similarly it's true that if economic conservatism is considered the most relevant criteria all else being equal that the former hedge manager/CEO Romney should get your vote.
Perhaps what's most interesting about the two candidates though is not what they bring to the table in terms of their conservatism but what they fail to come with. Despite being a strong religious conservative Huckabee has been accused of not being a 'real' conservatve whatever that's supposed to mean. Apparently Wall-Street interests don't think there's room in the 'big tent' for people whose policies they don't like either that or they think over-hauling the IRS is a truely 'liberal' idea you can figure out which.
Romney on the other hand who some say would not be able to be relelected in Massachusetts because of his flip-flopping on social issues flexes his ex-CEO muscles when it comes to dealing with economic issues but can't connect with the religious base of the party the way he should be able to. Part of the problem is no doubt his Mormonism a Newsweek poll showed that 35% of the country would under no conditions vote for a Mormon. The bigger issue seems to be his flip-flopping though if there's anything social conservative can't stand it's someone who seems wishy-washy whether this makes them simple-minded or principled well you decide. They don't like it though. Beyond that social conservatives tend to be overwhelmingly evangelicals who get over it might just like the midwest girl a lot better than the slick east-coast CEO.
So what does all this add up too? Well in a nutshell conservatives in Iowa among other things need to decide whether social or economics issues are most important in picking a candidate.Very rarely has an electorate been given a choice where two candidates have reversed eachothers stregnths and weaknesses so clearly. Simply put Iowans can choose between a candidate who probably be Alan Greenspan's favorite or a candidate who would be James Dobson's favorite.
The 100,000 Iowans who cast their votes in the caucus have always had a hugely dissproportionate amount of influence this year though they seem to have even more given how tight the race is. I may just be naive but at the end of the day I think Iowans will choose the social conservative baptist minister from Arkansas over the mildly socially conservative or according to some even socially liberal ex-Massachusetts govenor it just seems like the more natural pick of Iowans.