Posted by
Scott on Thursday, November 08, 2007 4:36:46 PM
I must admit that I did a poor job of articulating my thoughts on the upcoming Iowa Caucus to say the least in the previous entry. So, I figured that I needed to add more commentary concerning the matter.
Over the past eight years social conservatives have been the dominant force in the bush administration. Given just how lame-duck the bush admin. has been of late I think there is a feeling among many in the republican party that a new direction is needed.
Romney represents in many ways much more the party of Norman Rockfeller than the party of George W. Bush or Karl Rove. For many aggravated with the current state of things with in the party this no doubt a good thing.
When the Iowa Caucus takes place it will be as much about which direction the party should go as any other issue. The fact a former Massachusetts governor whose done poorly for the most part in debates, is known a social flip-flopper, and OMG is a mormon stands a chance to beat out a former Baptist minister, and Tennessee attorney in Iowa speaks volumes about just how aggravated some people are with the party.
Of course, the flip-side is what if Romney doesn't win or what if he takes say 25% of the vote and Huckabee comes in second with 20%. You think newspaper headlines are going to be praising Romney? probably not..
If Huckabee is the winner in Iowa it would be a resilient message about just how conservative and how populist the Republican party has become.
I was taking a poli-sci class during the 2004 election and my professor was very aggravated about the results of presidential election. He complained about how Bush had been successful in creating a sort of populist vibe in areas of the country like Missouri despite being perhaps the closest thing to royalty in the U.S.
His complaints in my estimations were not entirely fair but he did get one of part of it correct the Bush campaign did have a strongly populist tone. Huckabee has that same populist tone that would resonate to most of the same states where Bush won in 2004.
It's important for conservatives to consider that while things may not be perfect or even neccessarily very good in the GOP that nominating an east coaster like Guilliani or Romney who isn't primarily a social conservative could have negative effects in places like Iowa, Missouri, and Arkansas where Bush had a lock in 2004.